Institute of World Politics | In-Person Event

About the Lecture: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is at the core of Beijing’s strategy to dominate Eurasia and secure the Chinese Dream. Since its inception in 2013, the BRI is a multi-trillion-dollar global critical infrastructure development strategy spanning across 139 nation-states. At the heart of the behemoth lies the flagship $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a 15-year geostrategic venture that commenced in 2015, connecting the restive province of Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea. The immense investment in Pakistan resembles a corporate takeover by an outside financier. For its part, Islamabad has accepted the buyout to develop economically and secure a reliable ally in its confrontation with India.

Beijing’s overall mental map for the CPEC is marked by various Islamist and insurgency movements, as well as manifold proxy wars instigated by outside actors, which will hinder the reach of the corridor. The CPEC is also accompanied by a vital maritime component, with the Mahanian notion of speedily procuring access to a string of ports for extended deployments in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Compared to the first island chain, the IOR remains less susceptible to external trade disruption, owing to a lighter Western footprint.

To that end, this lecture traces the geoeconomic and security implications of the CPEC and proposes the following conclusions: Pakistan’s internal challenges of governance and corruption will temper Chinese expectations to realize its vision; the extension of the CPEC into Afghanistan will be incumbent on the Taliban’s ability to establish a functional regime and provide a secure atmosphere for Chinese investments; regional opposition voices to the CPEC will grow stronger; the Sino-Iranian deal will enable China to diversify its source of energy from Russia; Russia will likely be incorporated in larger CPEC-related undertakings as a dominant Central Asian player; and the U.S. requires a new strategy alongside India, the only viable South Asian partner and the world’s largest democracy, to frustrate Chinese regional ambitions.