ADELINE SIEBENTHAL
On January 18th, 2024, the Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence, Policy, and International Security at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government hosted a panel of former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) experts to discuss Israel’s war with Hamas as it reached the 100-day mark.
The event featured:
- Emile Nakhleh, former CIA senior analyst and director of its Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program, former Director of National Security Programs at the University of New Mexico, and expert analyst at The Cipher Brief;
- Norman T. Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, former CIA senior operations officer, advisor to the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School and to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and an expert analyst at The Cipher Brief;
- Rodney Snyder, former CIA Chief of Station in the region and Chief of Staff to Director David Petraeus, former Special Assistant to the President for Intelligence Programs, former Assistant Commissioner at US Customs and Border Protection, cybersecurity partner at Guidehouse, and an expert analyst at The Cipher Brief;
- Moderating the discussion, Michael Morell, the former Acting Director and Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
To better understand the Israel-Hamas war today and what is to come, the conversation began with a detailed analysis of the psyche of each player (Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian people, and the surrounding nations). The panel delved into the fears, the hopes, the anger, how each psyche has evolved since October 7th, 2023, and how they can get past where their psyche is today. Snyder noted he “believes the Israeli psyche is deeply enmeshed in what happens now,” noting three possible dynamics at play:
- There is no escaping the everyday trauma that comes with the searing effects of the unimaginable loss and acts of violence, not only from October 7th but from the mounting casualties in Gaza, the violence in the West Bank and up north, rallies, protests, or from Israeli politics;
- The effect from shattered expectations—a nation of strong people built on the promise of “never again,” has been shaken to its core by October 7th and the continued war; and
- The effects from the stress of what could come next, and the idea that other shoes have yet to drop.
Nakhleh discussed the Palestinian civilian psyche and emphasized the need to evaluate the Palestinian civilian psyche beyond October 7th, that one must go back to the 1967 war. Nakhleh prefaced his analysis, noting that “from decade to decade, the situation gets worse for the Palestinians themselves.” Elaborating on this, Nakhleh noted how over time issues such as overcrowding in the West Bank, humiliation and violence by Israeli troops, and violence inflicted by Israeli settlers have compounded. From this, Nakhleh noted that this treatment and situation has driven their resentment and contributed to their tremendous frustration. Nakhleh noted “that this feeling of subjugation turns to violence as the only way out,” and that “recent polls show why Palestinians tremendously respect what Hamas did in Gaza because it expresses their frustration, not because they support Hamas, [but because] many in the West Bank consider Hamas to be secular.”
From here, Morell transitions to psyche analysis to regional actors: the Sunni Arab countries – the leadership of the so-called Arab Street—and Iran and its proxies. It was noted that this is a trauma between two groups of people, with differing histories and perceptions of each other. With this, Sunni states are on the cusp of tremendous transformation that could act as an engine of progress over time, if it succeeds. However, this process will require months of work on all sides. For the Iranians, this setup—the trauma between the two groups—is a great, if not ideal, system to be presented with, with Iran having been able to operationalize the many pieces it has on the chess board.
Morell then asked, “Who’s winning the war on the ground and winning the war of public opinion?” On this topic, the three panelists noted various ways to approach these questions. Roule emphasized that when it comes to winning this war, it requires a definition as to what winning is, for example, while Israel has destroyed a large portion of Hamas’ military, public opinion on Netanyahu’s government within Israel remains low, and additionally Israeli is now somewhat facing a seven-front war. Nakhleh added that in terms of winners, Hamas comes to mind as it has survived the Israeli assault for three months when no one expected it to survive; in addition, it has reinserted Palestine as an issue on the regional and global front with leaders now discussing the idea of a Palestinian state. Snyder added that he would place Iran and its proxies, the Israel settlers, and the idea of hate, in the winning column.
In closing, Morell opened a discussion on the humanitarian crisis and the future of Gaza. A clear takeaway from the three panelists was that, first, the war must end for any progress to be made. Roule noted that it would not be reasonable to ask the Palestinians to rebuild Gaza if it could be destroyed again in three weeks to six months, and that some sort of peace process must be undertaken. Additionally, Roule added that one legitimate concern is that Hamas may take the aid provided to the Palestinian civilians to use for their own efforts, such as rebuilding tunnels. Snyder added that rebuilding efforts are not looking positive and that the crisis may warrant Sunni countries stepping up and others within the UN to create refugee camps until this war stops and they can rebuild with humanitarian aid. In looking to the future, Nakhleh added that we “cannot look at the future of Gaza without linking it to the West Bank and that the peace process or end solution cannot involve current leaders.”
Adeline Siebenthal is a student in the Masters in International Security program at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government. While at George Mason, she works as the Graduate Assistant for The Michael V. Hayden Center.